Discussion of competition INTUITION

[Рэмис]

Nothing. On my first three jobs generally pictures was not. And managed however you See. ))))))

[.по.]

How did you know that right? ))) How many correct answers?

[Рэмис]

So still not learned. ))))) Well performed the same test without pictures, it is not bad )))))

[Лон]

without pictures it is almost not real to adequately respond, if only to rely on others ' answers

[Рэмис]

Well, I found out later, correctly answered no other answers. The hell they gave me?!

[Лон]

right and left front...back...from the information???

[Рэмис]

Intuition, that will test how much it can rely on, it's not about the gifts.

[Лон]

3 the job. your answer is 2...not dancing like that

[Рэмис]

view..

[Лон]

in General I tried also to go purely on feelings, not on logic, looking at the shadows and the strategy of the authors...look in the end

[Лон]

spouse protest on the paper record ... also will compare in the end, women really are closer to "the witches"

[Рэмис]

Logic, strategy authors, advisers, etc. I wonder who uses it in extreme situations when a matter of minutes or seconds. As they say: you have to guess - will make a mistake. In this test for me was the extreme lack of photos in the three tasks. So I want to see-you had an intuition or not.

[Рэмис]

But I wonder why everyone decided that task No. 6 for a piece of paper anything is?! Just because it was in test conditions? And there can't be that all the test participants worked thought patterns? If you say something is to mean something there must be... but if just a hoax and there was nothing there? )))))

[.по.]

If you say something is to mean something there must be... but if just a hoax and there was nothing there? )))))

It would be a very smart experiment

[.по.]

Pending the results, an alternative calculation of the probabilities. I guess the right thing to consider

The probability to give one correct answer = 50% (first/second issue)
The probability to give two correct answers = 25% (on the first and second question)
The probability to give three correct answer = 8.3% (for first, second and third issue)
Likely to give four correct answer = 2%
Likely to give five correct answers= 0.5%

If the number of participants is 50, one is guaranteed to give 4 correct answer. But in probability theory there is a rule of three Sigma for a normal distribution of a random variable (namely, that is), so for reliability they need to calculate the variance results

[.по.]

The probability of guessing accurately call the denomination and suit of the card is 1/36 for a deck of 36 cards. And for 1/52 of a deck of 52 cards

That is guaranteed to be someone of 50 people just call and face and the suit. And maybe even two people, if the cards 36. That in no way means victory and clairvoyance (I hope such horrors will not happen and will continue the job with a number of cards, at least 5, better 10), but only an mathematical warranty of this.

[Рита С]

Likely to give five correct answers= 0.5%

The probability of guessing

1. 1/2 --------------------------50%
1+2 1/4 --------------------------25%
1+2+3 1/12 ---------------------8.3%
1+2+3+4 1/48------------------ 2%
1+2+3+4+5 Color 1/96 ---------1,04%
1+2+3+4+5 the Suit 1/192 -------0,5%
1+2+3+4+5 Map 1/1728 -----0,057%

[.по.]

I fell in love ))

[.по.]

here, I think, how else would the Gaussian screwed here... the Bell of the normal distribution... For him, it is necessary to understand the expectation

Such a timetable in the form of a bell shows that the competition is conducted fairly and without fraud

[Лон]

The day has passed..it will wait for 100 answers?

[.по.]

the larger the sample the more reliable the analysis on probability theory ))) If the digits match (plus or minus 3 Sigma confidence interval), that means no jasnovidenie and complete mathematical predictability, the law of the crowd, which governs all natural from politics and Economics to the behavior of ants. In this case, it is recommended to choose other jobs, not on guessing.

In the case that a lot of clairvoyants (and all the participants, at least for many years mages, as I understand it) - there is a strong bias probabilities. For example, guessing the answer would be 4 5-7 people from 50, and 3 answer - 20-25 out of 50. And even a couple of people who answered 5 questions correctly tailored suit

I am satisfied with both results. But will be able to take a mathematical option those who are looking for the opposite...

[Лон]

Some participants have already begun to edit your answers)))

[.по.]

And it will not change anything )))

[Лон]

At the moment, 29 of the 57 responses came from users with only 1 post on the forum..and I just want to give the main part of the checked in after the start of the experiment

[Россомаха]

Most have already summed up, hunting rather his map of Alchemy to