Discussion of competition INTUITION
-
- Разработчик
- Posts:2240
- Joined:Sat Apr 06, 2013 13:29
- Location:Москва
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 1124 times
Discussion of competition INTUITION
viewtopic.php?f=55&t=6540
Discuss the challenges of each stage, whether of simple or complex tasks for you, what feelings have arisen in the process of implementation, what's new in yourself in progress unable to open, etc.
viewtopic.php?f=55&t=6540
Discuss the challenges of each stage, whether of simple or complex tasks for you, what feelings have arisen in the process of implementation, what's new in yourself in progress unable to open, etc.
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
Had card for you to expand the
The glasses swap
Item assistant in your office to pick up..
Guess the suit of the card was relatively not easy..kaleidoscope bust cards...that only your eyes not flashed yet put
The glasses swap
Item assistant in your office to pick up..
Guess the suit of the card was relatively not easy..kaleidoscope bust cards...that only your eyes not flashed yet put
Last edited by Лон on Tue Sep 26, 2017 23:25, edited 2 times in total.
-
- Posts:57
- Joined:Tue Apr 01, 2014 0:29
- Has thanked: 7 times
- Been thanked: 21 times
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
To what number will the competition?
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
Probability of blind guessing:
1 assignment: 50%
Task 2: 50%
3 task: 30%
4 job: 25%
5 assignment: the color of 50%, the suit 25%
6 a job: the chance is about 3% to guess exactly (out of the 30 household items on hand)
according to the statistics (this must be a big sample):
on some jobs 1-2 correct answer 25% of participants
on some jobs 2-3 correctly answer 15% of the participants
on some jobs 3-4 correct answer 7.5% of the participants
on some jobs 4-5 correct answer 6.2% of participants
three tasks 1-2-3 correct answer 7.5%
three 2-3-4: 3.75%
three 2-4-5: 3.1%
four tasks 1-2-3-4 correct answer: 1.875%
four 1-3-4-5: 0.9%
All 5 tasks correctly answer 0.4% participants
--------------------------------------
Suppose participants it will be typed 10. We are none of the statistics won't see three correct answers from the first 5 tasks, except that the three tasks 1-2-4. And then, there is the shadow of someone something can tell.
If you happen to see one, don't forget that it works with very large numbers, such as 1000. And lady luck is so capricious, that the tails can fall 100 times in a row at any second (and then a million years to fall in this combination)
1 assignment: 50%
Task 2: 50%
3 task: 30%
4 job: 25%
5 assignment: the color of 50%, the suit 25%
6 a job: the chance is about 3% to guess exactly (out of the 30 household items on hand)
according to the statistics (this must be a big sample):
on some jobs 1-2 correct answer 25% of participants
on some jobs 2-3 correctly answer 15% of the participants
on some jobs 3-4 correct answer 7.5% of the participants
on some jobs 4-5 correct answer 6.2% of participants
three tasks 1-2-3 correct answer 7.5%
three 2-3-4: 3.75%
three 2-4-5: 3.1%
four tasks 1-2-3-4 correct answer: 1.875%
four 1-3-4-5: 0.9%
All 5 tasks correctly answer 0.4% participants
--------------------------------------
Suppose participants it will be typed 10. We are none of the statistics won't see three correct answers from the first 5 tasks, except that the three tasks 1-2-4. And then, there is the shadow of someone something can tell.
If you happen to see one, don't forget that it works with very large numbers, such as 1000. And lady luck is so capricious, that the tails can fall 100 times in a row at any second (and then a million years to fall in this combination)
Last edited by .по. on Tue Sep 26, 2017 23:32, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
I would even say that the experiments with the hole cards - the most successful. Here such 5 experiments with cards make, cards just let it be 7. There all will become clear )))
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
Some more mathematics on the probability of guessing two answers. And how much of this will eventually be guessed as a percentage of the number of participants...
1-2: 25%
1-3: 15%
1-4: 12.5%
1-5: 12.5%
2-3: 15%
2-4: 12.5%
2-5: 12.5%
3-4: 7.5%
3-5: 7.5%
4-5: 6.2%
Now summarize the probability that any person will guess the correct answer.
1-2, 3-4 = 25+15 = 40% answer correctly on these pairs
1-2, 3-5 = 25 + 7.5 = 32.5%
1-2, 4-5 = 25+6.2 = 31.2%
1-3, 2-4 = 15+12.5 = 27.5%
1-3, 2-5 = 15+12.5 = 27.5%
1-3, 4-5 = 15+6.2 = 21.2%
1-4, 2-3 = 12.5 + 15 = 27.5%
1-4, 2-5 = 12.5+12.5 = 25%
1-4, 3-5 = 12.5 + 7.5 = 20%
1-5, 2-3 = 12.5 + 15 = 27.5%
1-5, 2-4 = 12.5 + 12.5 = 25%
1-5, 3-4 = 12.5 + 7.5 = 20%
----------------------------------------
the Average percentage that people will give TWO correct answer is 27%. Every FOURTH person will give TWO right answers
The maximum probability of guessing two answers is 40%. That is, the bias in the statistics can reach up to 40% of those who guessed two answers.
Three answers to regarded as a very lazy and long...
1-2: 25%
1-3: 15%
1-4: 12.5%
1-5: 12.5%
2-3: 15%
2-4: 12.5%
2-5: 12.5%
3-4: 7.5%
3-5: 7.5%
4-5: 6.2%
Now summarize the probability that any person will guess the correct answer.
1-2, 3-4 = 25+15 = 40% answer correctly on these pairs
1-2, 3-5 = 25 + 7.5 = 32.5%
1-2, 4-5 = 25+6.2 = 31.2%
1-3, 2-4 = 15+12.5 = 27.5%
1-3, 2-5 = 15+12.5 = 27.5%
1-3, 4-5 = 15+6.2 = 21.2%
1-4, 2-3 = 12.5 + 15 = 27.5%
1-4, 2-5 = 12.5+12.5 = 25%
1-4, 3-5 = 12.5 + 7.5 = 20%
1-5, 2-3 = 12.5 + 15 = 27.5%
1-5, 2-4 = 12.5 + 12.5 = 25%
1-5, 3-4 = 12.5 + 7.5 = 20%
----------------------------------------
the Average percentage that people will give TWO correct answer is 27%. Every FOURTH person will give TWO right answers
The maximum probability of guessing two answers is 40%. That is, the bias in the statistics can reach up to 40% of those who guessed two answers.
Three answers to regarded as a very lazy and long...
Last edited by .по. on Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:03, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
Although Troika is easy to calculate:
1-2-3: 7.5%
1-2-4: 6.2%
1-2-5: 6.2%
1-3-4: 3.75%
1-3-5: 3.75%
1-4-5: 3.1%
2-3-4: 3.75%
2-3-5: 3.75%
2-4-5: 3.1%
3-4-5: 1.8%
Sum up the probabilities:
1-2-3, 4-5: 7.5+6.2 = 13.7%
1-2-4, 3-5: 6.2+7.5 = 13.7%
1-2-5, 3-4: 6.2 + 7.5 = 13.7%
1-3-4, 2-5: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
1-3-5, 2-4: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
1-4-5, 2-3: 3.1 + 15 = 18.1%
2-3-4, 1-5: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
2-3-5, 1-4: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
2-4-5, 1-3: 3.1 + 15 = 18.1%
3-4-5, 1-2: 1.8 + 25 = 26.8%
---------------------------------------------
Average probability of blind guessing TWO or THREE answers: 16.9%
One in six people correctly answer THREE tasks or TWO
The maximum probability of guessing TWO or THREE: 26.8%
The average probability of guessing THREE: 4.2%
The maximum probability of guessing THREE: 7.5%
look at what magic magiczna - mathematics and the law of large numbers or clairvoyance )))
1-2-3: 7.5%
1-2-4: 6.2%
1-2-5: 6.2%
1-3-4: 3.75%
1-3-5: 3.75%
1-4-5: 3.1%
2-3-4: 3.75%
2-3-5: 3.75%
2-4-5: 3.1%
3-4-5: 1.8%
Sum up the probabilities:
1-2-3, 4-5: 7.5+6.2 = 13.7%
1-2-4, 3-5: 6.2+7.5 = 13.7%
1-2-5, 3-4: 6.2 + 7.5 = 13.7%
1-3-4, 2-5: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
1-3-5, 2-4: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
1-4-5, 2-3: 3.1 + 15 = 18.1%
2-3-4, 1-5: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
2-3-5, 1-4: 3.75 + 12.5 = 16.25%
2-4-5, 1-3: 3.1 + 15 = 18.1%
3-4-5, 1-2: 1.8 + 25 = 26.8%
---------------------------------------------
Average probability of blind guessing TWO or THREE answers: 16.9%
One in six people correctly answer THREE tasks or TWO
The maximum probability of guessing TWO or THREE: 26.8%
The average probability of guessing THREE: 4.2%
The maximum probability of guessing THREE: 7.5%
look at what magic magiczna - mathematics and the law of large numbers or clairvoyance )))
Last edited by .по. on Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:05, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
Count four correct answers...
1-2-3-4: 1.8%
1-2-3-5: 1.8%
1-2-4-5: 1.5%
2-3-4-5: 1.5%
------------------------------
Average probability of blind guessing FOUR answers: 1.65%
Maximum likelihood: 1.8%
Here clairvoyants no chance. And if someone guesses and the number of participants is less than 60 people - is clairvoyance.
And the remaining digits will verify the results ))
1-2-3-4: 1.8%
1-2-3-5: 1.8%
1-2-4-5: 1.5%
2-3-4-5: 1.5%
------------------------------
Average probability of blind guessing FOUR answers: 1.65%
Maximum likelihood: 1.8%
Here clairvoyants no chance. And if someone guesses and the number of participants is less than 60 people - is clairvoyance.
And the remaining digits will verify the results ))
- Белояръ Волков
- Posts:112
- Joined:Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:10
- Has thanked: 104 times
- Been thanked: 21 times
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
First prize - card Alchemy is issued to those who scored the least points?Аура wrote:Discussion of competition INTUITION
- Андрей Кабанков
- Автор сайта
- Posts:3875
- Joined:Fri Mar 31, 2006 8:19
- Location:Москва
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 182 times
- Contact:
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
I don't know the answers.Белояръ Волков wrote:And to read the old messages it was either the author himself was not aware of?))) Oh to know more the result of my answer!))
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
At the moment, the first task said:
Left: 18 people
Right: 10 people
(bias due to the shadow that would be interpreted ambiguously, it is clear that the shadow from the source at the top, but it seems that from a candle. The task is incorrectly formulated, misleading, provoking to think about the shadows. Similarly 4th)
On the second job said:
Left: 15 people
Right: 13 people
(there is almost 50/50 - malavrentiev such tasks does not make sense, although correct)
On the third task said:
left 5
center 14
right 9
(the center has more answers for the normal distribution, so the mentality - if there was no response, it is most likely. Even in the center... Maybe the same way the psyche worked, and the organizers of the competition, in this case of clairvoyance, there is the same work of the psyche, the same "strategy". And since it in most cases it is the strategy of the crowd. But the organizer could be any strategy, most likely unconventional, so here are all relatively fair, although it is correct to put 7-10 cards and make the repetition of the task 5 times)
Left: 18 people
Right: 10 people
(bias due to the shadow that would be interpreted ambiguously, it is clear that the shadow from the source at the top, but it seems that from a candle. The task is incorrectly formulated, misleading, provoking to think about the shadows. Similarly 4th)
On the second job said:
Left: 15 people
Right: 13 people
(there is almost 50/50 - malavrentiev such tasks does not make sense, although correct)
On the third task said:
left 5
center 14
right 9
(the center has more answers for the normal distribution, so the mentality - if there was no response, it is most likely. Even in the center... Maybe the same way the psyche worked, and the organizers of the competition, in this case of clairvoyance, there is the same work of the psyche, the same "strategy". And since it in most cases it is the strategy of the crowd. But the organizer could be any strategy, most likely unconventional, so here are all relatively fair, although it is correct to put 7-10 cards and make the repetition of the task 5 times)
Last edited by .по. on Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:29, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
The sixth task is also incorrect. The most likely option - the production of the site, it is the psychology of the crowd (again, one guess, who is not, what is the most likely). And here again, it depends on the "strategy" - or the organizer is subject to the laws of psychology and then it's a production site. Or not subject to, and put something non - standard then it is unlikely that someone will guess. In such tasks it is necessary to put the custom object, which never can come.
The fifth task correctly, if the card was pulled at random. Otherwise, again, psychology and bust "strategies"
The fifth task correctly, if the card was pulled at random. Otherwise, again, psychology and bust "strategies"
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
Possible options for the next steps:
1. Guess rooms at the nearest lottery (match is not significant)
3. To describe a known person of those who could confirm or refute the information about him. Anything to describe diseases, problems, status, thoughts, emotions. The person has to say is true or not and award points
4. Describe the place in which there is a questioner during the day at the time of the task. What is around him, there is great room inside
5. The authenticity of the bills (4-5 pairs of notes, or just 10 cuts in a single job)
6. Guessing cards (not 3 maps, but the 5-7-10 repeat several times). For example: put ten cards and one has to call all denomination and suit in order.
Further steps:
1. To predict the date of the next crash
2. To haunt the other person and give a slap or something to make good. With the confirmation of the other person
3. Describe an event from the past of another person, with confirmation to them
4. To demonstrate the ability to influence events in any verifiable manner. For example, to force another person to do or to write something on the forum
5. To make the sky in the clouds a hole or remove one big cloud in the sky when others remain. Video
6. Indicate on the map the place where either the leading
1. Guess rooms at the nearest lottery (match is not significant)
2. Read conceived the thought form, the "energy" superimposed on a black square. "Structure" items according to the forum is able to read every second - show )))Know the future is only for certain things. For example, I know the outcome of upcoming games to tote to put them on and win a lot of money. Or know what the numbers will fall in the lottery, cross out and also win. The rest need to know.
3. To describe a known person of those who could confirm or refute the information about him. Anything to describe diseases, problems, status, thoughts, emotions. The person has to say is true or not and award points
4. Describe the place in which there is a questioner during the day at the time of the task. What is around him, there is great room inside
5. The authenticity of the bills (4-5 pairs of notes, or just 10 cuts in a single job)
6. Guessing cards (not 3 maps, but the 5-7-10 repeat several times). For example: put ten cards and one has to call all denomination and suit in order.
Further steps:
1. To predict the date of the next crash
2. To haunt the other person and give a slap or something to make good. With the confirmation of the other person
3. Describe an event from the past of another person, with confirmation to them
4. To demonstrate the ability to influence events in any verifiable manner. For example, to force another person to do or to write something on the forum
5. To make the sky in the clouds a hole or remove one big cloud in the sky when others remain. Video
6. Indicate on the map the place where either the leading
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
I understand that I have dreams every day, but I 95% don't remember at all..по. wrote: 2. To haunt the other person and give a slap or something to make good. With the confirmation of the other person
It is extremely rare that waking up among the sleep realize what a dream it was...but the details are gone from memory in the first 30 min with me for example, it is unlikely that the ride, even if I really dream to do something in my sleep.
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
I think it is good that the shadows are misleading )additional testing and loading .so check who is the shadow who focuses on inner feelings.по. wrote:bias due to the shadow that would be interpreted ambiguously, it is clear that the shadow from the source at the top, but it seems that from a candle. The task is incorrectly formulated, misleading, provoking to think about the shadows. Similarly the 4th
Re: Discussion of competition INTUITION
We will not test thus... the Probability of randomly poke a finger in the task and guess - is 50%. This means that this task will always cope with all conditions half of the participants (on a large sample, of course, a small sample is a little skewed). Any person can handle. And from a mental hospital, and from wounds. 50%
Understand that it does not mean anything, I very much hope that there will be further stages, correctly drawn (with a large number of options in each task, and several iterations of the task). Otherwise, it's all a huge farce, and the introduction of the people themselves in believing that they saw something... they didn't see it the law of large numbers, theory of probabilities, which govern all. You can say a "field of probabilities", which builds randomly on the Board pieces and they always get 50% white and 50% black. Placed today so, tomorrow otherwise... And thinks she saw there... Just randomly guessing. And tomorrow can not guess.
Moreover, this guess is not clairvoyance, it's just a guess. No draws and abilities won't help - it doesn't work ))) Here I described further checks - this is ability, you can still come up...
In the first stage there is only one criterion to give 4 correct answer on the first 5 assignments. That these people can continue to let ))) Well, or to let all and test more correctly.
The funny thing will be aired on "give me 10 cards of 10 in order", repeated several times.
Understand that it does not mean anything, I very much hope that there will be further stages, correctly drawn (with a large number of options in each task, and several iterations of the task). Otherwise, it's all a huge farce, and the introduction of the people themselves in believing that they saw something... they didn't see it the law of large numbers, theory of probabilities, which govern all. You can say a "field of probabilities", which builds randomly on the Board pieces and they always get 50% white and 50% black. Placed today so, tomorrow otherwise... And thinks she saw there... Just randomly guessing. And tomorrow can not guess.
Moreover, this guess is not clairvoyance, it's just a guess. No draws and abilities won't help - it doesn't work ))) Here I described further checks - this is ability, you can still come up...
In the first stage there is only one criterion to give 4 correct answer on the first 5 assignments. That these people can continue to let ))) Well, or to let all and test more correctly.
The funny thing will be aired on "give me 10 cards of 10 in order", repeated several times.